Transmission operator warns of electric capacity deficit
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The transmission operator serving 16 states and a Canadian province—including Indiana—could face a capacity deficit as soon as next summer.
The Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s (MISO) projections for its 2025-2026 planning year ranged from a surplus of 1.1 gigawatts—1 billion watts—to a deficit of 2.7 gigawatts. Risk was greatest in the spring and summer.
That’s if electric utilities add 2.3 gigawatts of potential new capacity, in keeping with the average added in the last three years.
And even at that rate of additions, the deficit is expected to grow.
MISO and the Organization of MISO States surveyed utilities, with 90% of existing generation capacity participating, in results released Thursday.
In a news release, MISO CEO John Bear said there’s “an urgent need to continue and increase collaboration with our state regulators to ensure the evolving generation fleet can meet the growing demands across our footprint.”
Organization of MISO States leader Josh Byrnes, who is also a member of the Iowa Utilities Board, cast a wider net.
“As we face tightening capacity reserve margins compounded with rapid and large load additions, it is imperative for everyone from developers (new load and generation), economic development authorities, utilities, regulators, MISO, and other stakeholders to work in close coordination,” Byrnes said.
The deficit is projected to widen to 5 gigawatts in the 2026-2027 planning year and beyond thereafter, topping 14 gigawatts in the 2029-2030 planning year.
The planning year extends from June through May.
Downside risks, according to the organizations, include a continued “rapid pace of resource retirements,” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulations that accelerate retirements, delays to capacity additions, a backlogged queue for new energy sources and high load growth.
MISO said it anticipated heavy long-term growth, driven primarily by power-sucking data centers and manufacturing.
They also listed upside possibilities: easing supply chain bottlenecks, permitting “restraints” and labor shortages to enable plenty of new capacity, for example. Queue improvements, better price signals and more could also contribute to a rosier future.
That’s outlined in the report’s alternative projection, based on timing estimates from interconnection customers with generation interconnection agreements. Utilities would add 6.1 gigawatts of potential new capacity annually.
In that scenario, the higher potential new capacity would meet and even exceed MISO’s projected planning reserve margin requirements through the 2029-2030 planning year.
But if MISO adds more large data centers and manufacturing facilities, the deficit would continue to grow, regardless of if utilities add 2.3 gigawatts or 6.1 gigawatts of potential new capacity annually.
Indianapolis-based Reliable Energy Inc., a trade organization pushing coal, gas and nuclear power, said state regulators should postpone fossil fuel plant closures.
“It is the responsibility of the Indiana General Assembly and the next Governor of Indiana to collaborate with our state’s utility regulators in response to MISO’s call to ensure that the state has sufficient power to keep the lights on for all Hoosier families and businesses,” President Jon Ford said in a statement.
The Indiana Capital Chronicle is an independent, not-for-profit news organization that covers state government, policy and elections.