Gas prices are barreling toward a 3-year low as election nears
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Gas prices are falling fast, dipping below $3 a gallon in many parts of the country just before the presidential election,although it may not provide the political boost Vice President Kamala Harris is hoping for.
Gas prices are averaging $3.14 per gallon nationwide, within 8 cents of a 3-year low. They range from $2.70 to $2.90 per gallon throughout much of the GOP-leaning Sun Belt, according to AAA, the motor club firm.
Americans have long used gas prices as a way to gauge the country’s economy. Falling fuel costs typically lift presidential approval rates – along with the standing of whoever’s in the White House – while rising costs have the opposite effect.
“Americans have a history of rewarding or punishing presidents based on how things are going at the pump,” said Jon Krosnick, a political science and psychology professor at Stanford University. “If prices are going down, people tend to say ‘If things are getting better, let’s not change horses midstream.’ They favor the incumbent.”
But experts caution that may not be the case this time around. Although gas prices are a well-established stand-in for economic issues, voters say they are more focused on rising costs for housing, food and utilities.
“The decrease in gas prices doesn’t seem to be making as much of a difference this year,” said Laurel Harbridge-Yong, a political science professor at Northwestern University.
Although the U.S. economy is in solid shape, Americans continue to feel downbeat about their finances. Consumer sentiment remains depressed, in large part because of a pandemic-era burst of inflation that lifted costs for housing, food, utilities and other necessities.
Although the inflation rate has eased dramatically – to 2.4 percent from a peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022 – many prices remain elevated. Gas prices, which have fallen 15 percent in the last year, are a notable exception.
Forvoters like Mohammed Ismail, an IT worker in Upstate New York, it hasn’t been enough to sway them politically.
“I mean, yeah, it’s refreshing to see gas prices going down because they haven’t been below the $3 mark in a long time,” Ismail, 28, said. “But at the same time, it’s like, ‘Oh cool, gas prices are coming down. But bills are going up, groceries are more expensive and it’s getting harder to find a job.’”
Ismail, who voted for Biden in 2020, says he isn’t sure whether he’ll vote at all this year. He’s dismayed by the war in Gaza, and says the economy doesn’t feel great, either. His wife has been looking for work for months, he said, and the couple have been unable to find renters for their duplex.
Despite relief at the gas station, “this is the most unenthusiastic I’ve ever been for an election,” he said.
Presidents typically have little control over gas prices, which are determined by a mix of geopolitical and economic factors. Most recently, fuel costs soared in 2021 and 2022, following the early shock of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices doubled in a span of two years, peaking at $5.01 per gallon in June 2022.
Since then, prices have come down by nearly 40 percent – the result of slowing demand and cheaper crude oil. Biden has also tapped into the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease costs.
Still, gas prices have become a talking point for both candidates, who have vowed to take on inflation across the economy. Former president Trump has said he would lower fuel costs to $1.87 a gallon, though he has not specified how he would do so. In a statement, the Trump campaign said the former president would offer relief by “reigniting our domestic energy industry like he did in his first term.”
Harris, meanwhile, has stressed the need to rein in “price gouging” and to reduce the country’s use of foreign oil by investing in other sources of energy, such as natural gas and solar. “We have had the largest increase in domestic oil production in history because of an approach that recognizes that we cannot over-rely on foreign oil,” she said in last month’s presidential debate
With the election less than two weeks away, political experts say every new development – including dips in gas prices – are taking on elevated significance, particularly for those who are still choosing between two candidates or deciding on whether to vote at all. But, they conceded, those voters make up a shrinking piece of the electorate.
“Given how close we are to the election and how many other issues are out there, I don’t think slightly lower gas prices are changing too many people’s opinions at this point,” said Carola Binder, an economics professor at the University of Texas at Austin who studies inflation.
Brittney Brown owns a floral shop in Wilmington, North Carolina, where gas prices are averaging about $2.88 a gallon, down from $2.95 a week ago. Lower gas prices, she said, “have been a great help for our business. We want to be able to get flowers to our customers without killing them with the cost of gas.”
But is she feeling any better about the economy? “No,” Brown said. She voted for Trump in 2020 and plans to do so again, in part because of the high cost of living.
“Gas is kind of a funny thing,” she said. “It fluctuates so much that who knows what it’s going to be like tomorrow? It’s not something we can count on.”