Farmer sentiment rises in July despite concerns over financial performance
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Agriculture producers across the country showed an increase in optimism last month though certain concerns remain, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
The barometer is calculated monthly from a telephone survey of 400 agricultural producers across the country. Purdue says the shift in farmer sentiment is largely due to fewer respondents saying that conditions were worse than they were a year ago and that they expect harder times in the future.
The barometer rose eight points to a reading of 113 in July.
Jim Mintert, director of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture, says despite the improvement in farmer sentiment, 29% of respondents said the risk of lower crop and livestock prices was their primary concern, up from 25% in June and 19% a year earlier.
Purdue noted that Eastern Corn Belt cash prices for corn and soybeans declined 11% and 5%, respectively, from mid-June to mid-July.
The newest survey was conducted July 15-19. That coincides with the Republican National Convention, and Mintert said there is precedent for a shift in sentiment in election years.
“Following the 2016 election when Trump was elected, we saw a big jump in sentiment,” he said. “In 2020, when Trump lost, we saw things move the opposite direction. We’ve got evidence in the past that things other than economic variables can influence sentiment, and I think this might be a case where that actually happened.”
Only 17% of respondents listed high interest rates as their top concern, down from 24% in July 2023.
“That’s consistent with Fed announcements,” Mintert said. “The Fed’s been kind of leaning towards this idea that interest rates are going to, maybe have peaked and maybe would come down. I think people in our survey are kind of buying into that.”
Two of the barometer’s main sub-indices also showed improvement last month. The Index of Current Conditions increased by 10 points to 100, and the Index of Future Expectations at 119 was 7 points higher than a month earlier.
However, the Farm Financial Index fell four points month-to-month and is also down six months year-over-year.
You can connect to the full Ag Economy Barometer results by clicking here.